The Administration on Aging has published its annual Profile of Older Americans and, as always, it contains a lot of interesting statistics. Here are a few of its findings:
- In 2022, there were 58 million residents of the United States age 65 or older, of whom 32 million were women and 26 million were men.
- They made up just over 17% of the entire population, a proportion that is expected to grow to 22% — more than one in five — by 2040.
- The oldest states by percentage of population 65 and over were Maine (22.5%), Florida (21.6%), Vermont (21.6%), and West Virginia (21.2%). In Massachusetts, 18.1% of the population is 65 or over.
- The average life expectancy at age 65 for women is 20.2 years and for men is 17.5 years.
- There were 89,000 centenarians in the United States in 2022.
- The 85 and over population is projected to more than double from 6.5 million in 2022 to 13.7 million in 2040.
- A quarter of people 65 and over in the United States are members of racial or ethnic minority populations, much less than younger residents. More than 40% of all U.S. residents and more than half of those under age 16 are members or racial or ethnic minority groups.
- About one in five Americans 65 and over are still working or looking for work, making up just under 7% of the U.S. labor force.
- There are 37 million Americans providing unpaid care to family or non-family members aged 65 and older.
Missing Information
As I’ve argued in my Risking Old Age in America Substack blog, by focusing on the 65 and older population, the Administration on Aging misses the boat on the most significant coming trend — the growth of the 85 and over population. This is because most Americans between the ages of 65 and 84 are in reasonably good health and able to manage on their own. It’s after age 85 that people are much more likely to face physical or cognitive declines that mean that they need assistance.
The only relevant statistic the report provides is the one cited above that the 85 and over population will more than double between now and 2040. This also means that the need for elder care will also more than double over the next 16 years and almost triple by 2050.
Using Census Bureau numbers, I was able to create the following chart:
As this shows, since by 2030 all baby boomers will have reached age 65, the growth of the 65 to 84 population will essentially stop in six years. But the 85 and over population, which is already growing at a faster rate than the 65 to 84 population, will expand by almost 60% between 2030 and 2040 and continue to grow at almost 30% for the following decade. Our already strained elder care “system” is far from ready.